Question:
can you find another exapmle of a theory in science that is fundementally nonpredictive.?
Perceiver
2007-01-27 13:31:54 UTC
Darwinism seems to be the only theory in science that is fundememntally non-predictive. Now i am not just talking about prediction from a practical standpoint. That can naturally be tricky in certain instances because of a lack of detailed information. Even in those instances retrospective prediction is possible in theory. I am not talking about events i am talking about theories. The creation of a snowflake is unpredictable but it is an EVENT that involves the intersection of many theories that individually make predictions. Darwinism is designed to accomodate radically different outcomes that bow to no conceivable scheme of probability. For example, darwinism allows a single cell to go fundementally unchanged for over 2 billion years in one instance and to become a human being in the same amount of time in another instance. natural selection cannot pull the slack for this as i explain in my post on this question

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070119
Five answers:
secretsauce
2007-01-27 15:37:19 UTC
I think I disagree with your analysis of the "non-predicatability" of evolution (if I understand it right).



But first to answer your question about "other examples", the only truly "non-predictive" theory I can think of is quantum theory. The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle even provides an equation that describes that fundamental non-predictability.



And a second case *might* be the theory of consciousness ... i.e. thoughts may be fundamentally unpredictable because they are affected by quantum events in the brain (read Roger Penrose).



However, evolution is different. Evolution falls in the same category as your snowflake example. Yes, the creation of a snowflake is an EVENT that can be predicted using, as you say, the intersection of many theories that individually make predictions ... but these individual predictions are *statistical* predictions. This is why, while the EVENT of the creation of a snowflake is predictable given certain conditions, the specific structure of the resulting snowflake is NOT predictable in any practical way. The same with the creation of a hurricane, or a storm on Jupiter.



The same is true of evolution. The EVENT of evolution by natural selection (more an ongoing PROCESS of many events) is indeed predictable, and is the intersection of many theories that individually make predictions (like genetics, and population dynamics). But again, these are *statistical* predictions. Thus, while we can predict that evolution WILL occur in certain conditions, we cannot predict the precise outcome ... the resulting organism.



In other words, the evolution of a specific organism is no more and no less "predictable" than the creation of a specific snowflake, or a specific hurricane.



All of these fall under the general category called "dynamic systems" ... otherwise known as chaos theory.



However, I also have to add one more comment ... as I detect a cynical attempt to diminish the theory of evolution as somehow different from all other theories, or even to imply that evolution should not qualify as a "theory" at all because it doesn't make predictions. If so, then you would be wrong ... evolution DOES make predictions (such as the locations and structures of what fossils will be found, the nature of genetic relationships between species, geographical distributions of species, molecular patterns in the DNA, etc. etc.). But making predictions is NOT the same as the theory being "predictable." Just because the theory cannot predict *specific* future outcomes doesn't make it unscientific. Evolution's inability to predict specific future organisms doesn't diminish it any more than meteorology's inability to predict a specific storm, or seismology's inability to predict a specific earthquake, or, for that mattter, quantum theory's inability to predict the decay of a specific atom. If that is what you mean by "non-predictability", then this is more the rule than the exception in science.



Nice try though.



{further edit}



Evolution absolutely *can* "retrospectively predict" a certain outcome. If we discover in colubine monkeys, two near-identical genes for two similar pancreatic enzymes, we can "retrospectively predict" that this is the result of a gene duplication event, followed by selective advantage for those monkeys who were better able to digest certain types of leaves that were their primary food in a certain environment. (See source.) I.e. genetics and endochrinology can "retrospectively predict" that specific enzyme in the same way that the chemistry of water, and crystallography can "retrospectively predict" a particular snowflake.



Why would one population A of cyanobacteria remain unchanged, while population B of cyanobacteria undergo evolutionary change? Because the members of B undergo different environmental pressures ... a population bottleneck, isolation in a tide pool, congregation near an oceanic vent, discovery of some new nutrient, or just some random new mutation, that through accidents of geography does not affect population A (cyanobacteria populations are worldwide, and subpopulations get isolated all the time). The result: two new strains A and B of cyanobacteria. Lather, rinse, repeat, for a million years, and you have many different strains, all undergoing different evolutionary pressures, and with different mutational input. Meanwhile, strain A continues to thrive quite happily in that environment in which it was originally optimal. Lather, rinse repeat, and A continues to thrive (as long as that environment continues to exist), while millions of different branches are each exploring different evolutionary niches ... some become fungi, some plants, some become posters on YA.
2007-01-27 13:41:32 UTC
Theories assume various forms depending on which discipline you're involved with. You're going to have a full spectrum of them in actual practice between the extremes of chemistry (at the objective extreme) and social sciences (at the subjective extreme).



Most theories fall into two broad categories depending on their objectives:



Positive theories explain phenomena as they are.

Normative theories explain phenomena as they should be.



(Normative theories introduce "norms" attempting to move behavior under their umbrella for general improvement.)



As long as the Theory of Evolution is used as a societal norm, this is the category it will fall into, and this places it at the subjective end of the spectrum. You can thank the Christian-haters for this. There is good science developing within the theory, but the behavioral aspects and political exercise rob the theory of legitimacy and rationality.
n_m_young
2007-01-27 14:54:11 UTC
Global Warming is another theory in science that is nonpredictive. Do we get warmer or sudden cold or neither? The only problem with this is many scientists consider this still in hypothesis stage.
Nick F
2007-01-27 13:34:36 UTC
darwinian evolution is not non predictive



ex it predicts that when you put a group of organisms under some selective pressure, the offspring of organisms with beneficial traits will be predominant in the population
2016-11-28 03:50:34 UTC
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